This past year I received an invitation to
revisit and update some research on smuggling that I did about seven years
ago. Those of us who do research in areas of macromarketing are a bit like
political scientists or economists. We make predictions based on theory
we develop. Then we find ourselves at the mercy of history as it unfolds.
As researchers in a constantly changing field, the prospect of determining
if our predictions come true is thrilling but a little daunting. It gives
us an opportunity to gloat over our insightfulness and squirm in the face
of our shortsightedness.
In an article published in 1996, Brad McBride
and I examined how smuggling evolved in Mexico over about 15 years. We
concluded that smuggling did not disappear as a result of trade liberalization.
Liberalization was rarely complete, and smugglers could still take advantage
of not paying taxes other than tariffs. However as a possible consequence
of trade liberalization in the 1980s and 1990s, smuggling in Mexico shifted
from project to organized crime and took on a more sinister aspect. Furthermore,
by the mid-1990s evidence was surfacing that possible synergies between
organized crime involved in the illicit drug trade and organized crime
involved in the illegal importation of legal consumer goods were beginning
to be exploited. We concluded the article by warning international marketers
of the negative impact that this new smuggling could have on their operations.
Since the publication of that article, increasing
evidence has unfolded supporting both the evolution of smuggling into organized
crime and the use of smuggling as a way to launder money for international
drug cartels and possibly terrorist organizations. In retrospect, we were
particularly astute in understanding and predicting the recent evolution
of smuggling but relatively naïve in our assumption that firms did
not willingly involve themselves in smuggling.
In June 2000, U.S. Customs estimated the global
volume of money laundering, much of which is related to the illicit trade
in narcotics, to total more than $600 billion a year or between two and
five percent of the world’s domestic product. The connection between money
laundering and smuggled consumer products has been a major concern of U.
S. Customs for several years particularly after the government cracked
down on money laundering through U.S. banks. In 1997, undercover agents
traced drug money laundered via the Black Market Peso Exchange (BMPE) to
bank accounts of major U.S. corporations. U.S. exports often purchased
with narcotics dollars include household appliances, consumer electronics,
liquor, cigarettes, used auto parts, precious metals, and footwear.
The U.S. firms that sell these products have
routinely denied having any idea that they were involved in the BMPE and
have been successful in preventing law enforcement agencies from keeping
seized monies. Beginning in June 2000, however, a group of corporate executives
began a series of meetings at the Justice Department with then Attorney
General Janet Reno and other top officials. The companies included Hewlett-Packard,
Ford Motor Company, Whirlpool, General Motors, Sony, Westinghouse, and
General Electric Company. With the exception of General Electric, the companies
called to participate had products appearing in the Colombian black market.
General Electric was invited as the example of a good citizen who was successfully
cleaning up the smuggling of its goods into South America. But shutting
down smuggling came at a price to the firm. Between 1995 and 2000, General
Electric estimated that its good citizen policy cost the company about
twenty percent of its sales to South America.
Perhaps the most widespread corporate involvement
in smuggling concerns the tobacco industry. Its participation in smuggling
and money laundering has come under increased scrutiny since the late 1990s.
But the real excitement begins in 1999 when internal company documents
were made public after the settlement of litigation by Minnesota against
the five largest international tobacco companies. The International Consortium
of Investigative Journalists within the Center for Public Integrity, a
non-profit organization based in Washington, D.C., spent six months analyzing
what amounted to 11,000 pages of papers—then posted on their website correspondence
suggesting the firms have encouraged smugglers in various ways. Belize,
Canada, Ecuador, Honduras, and a group of state governors from Colombia
filed lawsuits against cigarette companies for their alleged participation
in smuggling. These suits have sought redress for past taxes, reimbursement
for policing costs, and triple damages under RICO. To date, the companies
have seen the cases dismissed under the “Revenue Rule” that disallows U.S.
courts from helping foreign governments collect taxes. But governments
are now more likely to assume the worst from international marketers whose
smuggled goods show up on black markets. The era of assumed innocence is
past.
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